Probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard: expe-rience and prospects of implementation in Ukraine
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Abstract
Ukraine's desire to integrate into the global political and economic space involves a transition to international standards.
The requirements of international regulatory documents for seismicity assessment differ from domestic standards.
In addition, the approach of assessing seismic hazard in points and the subsequent transition to soil movement parameters raises many questions from foreign specialists who act as international experts in survey work when designing facilities with foreign investments, such as tailings dumps of mining and processing plants, or facilities with an international audit, such as nuclear power plants. This issue may become even more relevant during the period of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, when funds from other countries will be attracted for development.
Fulfilment of international requirements involves conducting a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) during the design and operation of nuclear power plants, large hydraulic structures, which include hydropower facilities and tailing dams of mining and processing plants.
In Ukraine, the greatest experience in performing PSHA is available for nuclear power plants. With the participation of the authors, the most comprehensive methodology and programs for performing PSHA were developed for nuclear power plants, considering the geological, tectonic and seismological conditions of Ukraine. It should be noted that the main methodological provisions developed for nuclear power plants can be successfully used for performing PSHA of other facilities of increased responsibility class.
The main purpose of performing PSHA is to estimate peak ground accelerations and obtain generalized response spectra for the design level and maximum design earthquake.
PSHA is performed based on an integrated database containing the results of geological, geophysical, geomorphological, tectonic, engineering-geological, and seismological studies.
A key element of successful PSHA implementation is the assessment of uncertainties in the source data. The characteristics of the source data and their uncertainties are based on the available information.
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